S27: Conclusion

History of China Since 1800

March 9, 2026

Tomorrow will be better

Tomorrow will be better: A History

Concert for Democracy in China, May 27, 1989
  • Written in 1985, two years before end of martial law
  • Part of global initiative to raise money for the 1983–1985 famine in Ethiopia (e.g. “We are the World”).
  • Performed again in Hong Kong in 1989, at the Concert For Democracy In China

Key questions

Xu Haifeng: Subway rider in Shanghai
  • How to reform the China model?
  • What is the future of China’s past?
  • What can Chinese history tell us about its future?

Recap: Debating the China Model

Xu Haifeng: “Development is the only truth”
  • Is there a China model? What is it?
  • Is the China model unique? If so, how?
  • What can the world learn from China?

Zhang Weiwei: China Model

Discuss: Pan Wei

Pan Wei
  • What is the “China system”? How is it different from the “Western system”?
  • How could China maintain engagement with the West and “ideational independence”?
  • What, according to Pan, explains the rise of nationalism in China since the 1990s?
  • Explain the main schools of political thought in contemporary China: neo-leftists, neo-conservatives, etc.

Debating the China Model: Common Assumptions

Hu Jingtao, Jiang Zemin, Xi Jinping
  • Promise of political influence: “guiding role” of intellectuals
  • Despite disagreements, shared desire to identify “correct thought”
  • Despite emphasis on Chinese solution, profound intellectual engagement with “the West”

Typical view of Chinese Intellectuals: Dissidents vs. Loyalists

Liu Xiaobo

Ai Weiwei

Chen Yun: Caged Birds Metaphor

Chen Yun

If the cage was too small, the bird would not survive. If the cage was left open, the bird would fly away.

When the Caged Birds Sing: China’s Public Sphere

Xu Haifeng: Subway rider in Shanghai
  • No longer teachers of society, voice of the party, or intellectual vanguards of the “people”
  • New worlds: Official world, academic world, commercial world
  • Wide range of intellectuals: establishment, academic, independent, dissident
  • Diverse intellectual positions: Liberals, New Left, New Confucians
  • Vibrant and diverse intellectual scene – albeit within limits

Liberals

Xu Haifeng: Ice-cream sellers at the Bund, Shanghai
  • Not all political dissidents
  • Key features: Socialist failure, market-reform success, lack of political reform
  • Liberalism as the best solution for creating stable, just, prosperous societies in modern history
  • Reinvigorate tradition of Chinese constitutional government

New left

Wang Yuwen: Workers at a shipyard in Dalian, Liaoning province, 2004
  • Need for revival of the best of socialism as defense against global neo-liberalism
  • Growing statism: Call for strong state as needed bulwark against free market
  • Synergy with leftist thoughts in global south: neo-Marxism, post-colonialism
  • The West both as a source of critical theory, but also subject of critique

New Confucianism, continued

Confucius worship ceremony way of life for inheritor in Jining
  • Motivation: Socialism and liberalism hollowed out Chinese culture and left a spiritual vacuum
  • New Roles for Confucianism: State ideology + Cultural identity + Vehicle for moral education
  • Blend of cultural exceptionalism and universalism: China’s future – and the world’s – lies in reinvention of Confucian past
  • Confucian tradition of “benevolent rule” and “moral meritocracy” as legitimation of authoritarianism

Debating the China Model: A Summary

New Confucians:

“Chinese” solutions and indigenous intellectual tradition

Liberals:

Universal norms, often inspired by Western liberal thinkers

New Left:

Not limited to either Chinese or Western thinkers; drawing on Neo-Marxism, post-colonial theory, writings from the global South

Discuss: A China-centered world order?

Revival of Confucianism
  • What is the new tianxia? How is it different from the old model?
  • Can a Chinese concept offer a universal solution? What makes tianxia values universal and humanistic, rather than particular?

Contentious Politics: Workers and Peasants

Villagers carry banners reading “Pleading with the central government to help Wukan” and “Wukan villagers don’t believe Lin Zulian took bribes” during a protest in Wukan, in China’s Guangdong province, on June 22, 2016.

Peking University Marxist Society faces closure for supporting striking worker in Shenzhen, 2018

Contentious Politics: Xinjiang and Tibet

Tibetan uprising 30 March 2008

Uyghurs protesting in July 2009

Contentious Politics: Hong Kong

Occupy Central, 2014

Umbrella Movement, 2014

Anti-Extradition Bill Protests, 2019

Contentious Politics: White Papers

White Paper Protests in Shanghai, 2022

White Paper Protests in Beijing, 2022

Contentious politics, from Tian’anmen to today

Tian’anmen:

  • Large-scale mass movement invovling people of all ages and walks of life
  • Focus on broad social, political, economic issues
  • Target national party and gov leaders

Post-Tian’anmen:

  • More frequent but smaller in size
  • Focused on local issues
  • Concession with repression

Fragmented authoritarianism: View from Local Officials

Nationalist protests
  • Lack of fiscal resources from higher level gov
  • Need to rely on land sales / local businesses for revenue
  • Economic growth AND political stability as criteria for career advancement
  • More responsive to central signals than to local concerns

Fragmented authoritarianism: View from Central Gov

In 2013, residents in Kunming, China, demonstrated against a planned refinery producing paraxylene, a suspected carcinogen. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
  • Protests: Drain resources, security spending exceeds social spending.
  • Protest Value: Costly, but better than democratization as a release valve and feedback mechanism.
  • Corruption: Vested interests block addressing root causes (party-state role).
  • Liberalization Dilemma: Balancing public demands with party control is difficult.

Brave New World

Yalta Conference: Stalin, Churchill, Roosevelt

Putin, Trump, Xi

New Spheres of Influence?

Carving up China

Carving up the world

When Might is Right Again

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia, Feb 18, 2025
  • Settling the war – without Ukraine or Europe
  • Weakening of Trans-Atlantic Alliance
  • Collapse of “rule-based int’l order”
  • New age of empire? Greenland, Canada, Panama, etc.

Discuss: Inevitable Conflict

John Mearsheimer
  • Why is US-China rivalry inevitable? Why are great powers doomed to compete?
  • Was the US wrong to engage with China? What makes America’s China policy “delusional”?
  • What makes cold war 2 different? Can hot war be avoided? If so, how?

Worry Trend: From Economic Decoupling to Intellectual Decoupling

Chinese students in the US

US students in China

David Lattimore

David Lattimore
  • Employment at Dartmouth: Oct 1921 - Jul 1943
  • No bachelor’s degree; 20 years in China as English teacher in China (1901-1921)
  • Monograph: “A Complete English Grammar for Chinese Students” (1923)
  • Self-taught Chinese language and culture
  • Reference by Herbert Hoover

Course catalogue, 1924

Far Eastern Civilizations Department, Dartmouth College

The social and economic transformation of China in our time

The course begins with a brief outline of Chinese history, followed by a survey of Chinese institutions as they were before they began to be greatly affected by Occidental influences.

The Far East

A survey of the far eastern situation in its political, economic, and social aspects. The recent development and present problems of the Chinese and Japanese peoples will be given careful consideration.

History of studying Chinese history

Owen Lattimore (1900-1989), son of David Lattimore, charged with espionage, dismissed as consultant of the U.S. State Department, and end to academic career
  • From sinology to area studies: “Who Lost China”
  • Totalitarian model: Focus on institutions, leaders, ideology
  • Opening after Mao: More nuanced and highly variegated image of China: complexity and diversity, rather than uniformity

A case for history

Song Chao: Left behind
  • Context
  • Complexity
  • Contingency
  • Curiosity

Toast to the future

Brent Scowcroft (1925-2020), National Security Advisor of the United States (1989–1993)

When we have found ways to work together, the world has been changed for the better; and when we have been at odds, needless tension and suffering were the result. In both our societies there are voices of those who seek to redirect or frustrate our cooperation. We both must take bold measures to overcome these negative forces.

Toast by the Honorable Brent Scowcroft Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Beijing, December 9, 1989

Toast to the future, continued

Brent Scowcroft (1925-2020), National Security Advisor of the United States (1989–1993)

We are not China’s prime enemy or threat, as some would claim. But, like you, we are true to our own values, our heritage and traditions. We can be no other way. We extend our hand in friendship, and hope you will do the same.

Toast by the Honorable Brent Scowcroft Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Beijing, December 9, 1989