S05: Imperial Decline

History of China Since 1800

January 14, 2026

Lo Ta-yu: Pearl of the Orient

Key questions

Destroying Chinese war junks, by E. Duncan (1843) (cropped)
  • Mid-century Crises: What challenges did the Qing face at home?
  • The First Opium War: How did Qing lose? What were its legacies?
  • The Great Divergence: Why didn’t China industrialize? Or is it a bad question?

A View of Suzhou

Xu Yang (Chinese, active ca. 1750–after 1776) and assistants, The Qianlong Emperor’s Southern Inspection Tour, Scroll Six: Entering Suzhou along the Grand Canal, 68.8 x 1994 cm, Metropolitan Museum of Art

Suzhou garden

How to Read a Chinese Scroll

Along the Grand Canal

Xu Yang (Chinese, active ca. 1750–after 1776) and assistants, The Qianlong Emperor’s Southern Inspection Tour, Scroll Six: Entering Suzhou along the Grand Canal, 68.8 x 1994 cm, Metropolitan Museum of Art
  • What do we see?
  • What do we not see?
  • What’s every life like in Suzhou?

Macartney’s Diary

Grand Canal. Drawing by William Alexander, draughtsman of the Macartney Embassy to China in 1793.

The Empire of China is an old, crazy, first-rate Man of War, which a fortunate succession of able and vigilant officers have contrived to keep afloat for these hundred and fifty years past, and to overawe their neighbors merely by her bulk and appearance. But whenever an insufficient man happens to have the command on deck, adieu to the discipline and safety of the ship. She may, perhaps, not sink outright; she may drift some time as a wreck, and will then be dashed to pieces on the shore; but she can never be rebuilt on the old bottom.

Population pressure

Year Population estimate
1650 150 million
1800 300 million
  • State involution
  • Increased migration and resource competition
  • Decreased agricultural productivity
  • Ecological degradation: deforestation, silting of Yellow River, etc.
  • Social dislocation: Talent glut

China’s Money Problem: Silver

The Qing ran on a bimetallic system.

Copper coins, for daily transactions

Silver, for tax payments

Qing monetary system

Copper coins

Bi-metallic system:

  • Unminted silver bullion + Minted copper cash coins
  • Market adjustment of relative supply of two metals in circulation
  • Copper cash (mostly from Japan) contracted while silver (from the New World) grew

Qing fiscal system

A government-designated shop where copper coins and small ingots of silver can be exchanged for larger ingots of silver to be used for paying taxes, from The Qianlong Emperor’s Southern Inspection Tour, Scroll Six: Entering Suzhou Along the Grand Canal

Before mid-19th century:

“Storing wealth among the people”

A government-designated shop where copper coins and small ingots of silver can be exchanged for larger ingots of silver to be used for paying taxes, from The Qianlong Emperor’s Southern Inspection Tour, Scroll Six: Entering Suzhou Along the Grand Canal

Partnership with gentry elites:

  • <1% population, 25% farmland, 5-8% of agricultural income
  • Preferential treatment: Taxed at 20%-50% the rate of common farmers
  • Gentry wealth to pay for local administrative costs

Major Qing fiscal reforms

“Storing wealth among the people”

Kangxi
b. 1654-1722, r. 1661-1722

  • Freeze basic land tax (1713)

Yongzheng
b. 1678-1735, r. 1723-1735

  • Introducing silver meltage fee
  • Folding head tax into land tax

Qianlong
b. 1711-1799, r. 1735-1796

  • Tax reductions: lower grain assessments
  • General remission of land taxes (1745)

Grand Canal Crisis

The Grand Canal in Ming and Qing China
  • Costs of maintenance mainly shared among local elites
  • Debate at court: Abandon or restore?
  • Sea shipping after 1840
  • Affected population as source of instability

Secret Societies: Agents of disorder

Chris Hellier: Secret societies or brotherhoods, which had their own rules and codes, were, in foreign eyes, often the initiators of revolts and rebellions. Engraving, 1884.
  • Apocalyptic messianism in its expectation of the day of judgment and the birth of a savior.
  • Practices included medical healing, sitting and breathing exercises, martial arts, and the chanting of spells and charms.
  • Synthesis of Buddhism, Daoism, and Manicheanism (religious movement founded in Persia in the 3rd century CE by Mani, who, as the “Apostle of Light”, predicts an eternal struggle between a good spiritual world of light, and an evil material world of darkness.)

Rethinking Secret Societies

Confucian Literati: “Bandits” / “Heterodox sects”

Marxist historians: “Opium for the masses”

  • Importance of religion as key means of instigating popular revolt.
  • Secret, but also stable and structured: kinship and lineage as organization
  • Providing services and organization during economic and social decay

White Lotus Rebellion

White Lotus Society
  • The White Lotus Rebellion occurred in China from 1796 to 1804.
  • Led by the White Lotus Society, which preached Buddhist teachings of Maitreya Buddhism promising the arrival of a savior to restore the faithful.
  • The rebels aimed to overthrow the Qing government and restore the Ming Dynasty.

White Lotus Rebellion: A Failed Suppression

White Lotus Society
  • What began as a local rebellion escalated into a serious political crisis due to Qing’s ill response.
  • Officials tasked with suppressing the rebellion were often half-hearted and exploited the situation for personal gain.
  • Hiring civilians became a way to misappropriate war funds, leading many dismissed troops to become rebels themselves and increasing the war’s costs.
  • The rebellion foreshadowed the Qing’s disintegration in the mid-nineteenth century.

Official Corruption: Heshen

Heshen (1750-1799)
  • Heshen was a young Manchu who gained favor from the Qianlong Emperor.
  • Many officials became indebted to Hesen, allowing him to manipulate the system for his benefit.
  • Within five days of Emperor Qianlong’s death in 1799, the Jiaqing emperor arrested Hesen, who later hanged himself a month later.

Heshen: Rich Enough to Rival the State

Heshen’s residence, now Prince Gong’s Mansion, in Beijing

An examination of Hesen’s estate revealed his immense wealth, including:

  • 800 million ounces of silver (half of the state’s annual income)
  • 5.8 million ounces of gold
  • Nearly 5,000 gold bowls and dishes
  • 119 gold wash basins
  • 600 silver pots

Official corruption

He Shen (1750-1799)

How should the young Daoguang Emperor tackle official corruption?

Behind the Prosperous Age: “Involution”

Xu Yang (Chinese, active ca. 1750–after 1776) and assistants, The Qianlong Emperor’s Southern Inspection Tour, Scroll Six: Entering Suzhou along the Grand Canal, 68.8 x 1994 cm, Metropolitan Museum of Art

The troubles originated in the same population boom that founded the Qing success.

  • Jobs were scarce.
  • Success was nearly impossible in the tightly restricted (and corrupt) examination system.
  • The bureaucracy failed to appoint sufficient administrators even as the population doubled.
  • Taxes fell behind, as did the granary and canal system.

Debate: How should the Qing respond?

Qing official smoking opium
  • Silver outflow: Trade surplus with England turned deficit in 1826
  • Increasing opium smuggling
  • Growing users and addicts: “the magistrate or governor who did not smoke opium was an exception”

Lin Zexu’s Reform

Lady Strange - Alexander Murray (1843). Doings in China. London: Richard Bentley. p. ii.

The Daoguang Emperor (r. 1812-1850) opposed the operation of opium dens and appointed Lin Zexu as commissioner in 1838. Lin came up with a three-part plan:

  1. Offer rehabilitation for addicts in government sanitariums.
  2. Round up Chinese dealers and dismantle drug rings.
  3. Confiscate opium from foreign sellers and require them to sign agreements to exit the opium trade.

Discuss: Lin Zexu’s Letter to Queen Victoria

Lancun, Portrait of Queen Victoria, British Museum
  • What is Lin Zexu’s message to Queen Victoria?
  • How might his letter have been received in England?
  • Does Lin Zexu’s letter to Queen Victoria treat the Queen as an equal to the emperor?
  • Does he see Great Britain as of equal standing with China? Finally, with whom do you sympathize most in the letter? Why?

Showdown in Canton

Lin’s Position

  • Set up sanitariums and arrested over 1,600 Chinese dealers.
  • Surrounded 13 warehouses, holding 350 Europeans hostage for opium.
  • Negotiated with Elliot while denying ships food and water.
  • Destroyed over 2.6 million pounds of opium after merchants complied.

British position

  • Captain Charles Elliot, the British Superintendent of Trade opposed Lin’s methods and hostage-taking.
  • Elliot refused to sign a bond subjecting British citizens to Qing law, but promised to reimburse merchants before handing over opium.
  • Believed Canton system was inadequate for trade and sought formal diplomatic relations for unrestricted free trade.

Road to War

Chinese navy apprehending opium smugglers
  • Lin’s hostage-taking seen as an act of war.
  • Letter to Lord Palmerston, PM, infuriated the merchant lobby, who believed military response could enhance trade relations.
  • First shots of Opium War fired on September 4, 1839, near Hong Kong.
  • Opposition in England: A war more unjust in its origin, a war more calculated – to cover this country with permanent disgrace, I do not know, and I have not read of. (William Gladstone)

Treaty of Nanjing

Signing Treaty of Nanking
  • 21 million silver taels of indemnity
  • End of Cohong and Canton system
  • Era of treaty ports: five coastal cities opened for foreign trade
  • Extraterritoriality: foreign nationals subject to home laws for offenses in China
  • Britain granted “most favored nation” status

Why Didn’t China..

Why didn’t China have an indigenous Industrial Revolution, despite its wealth, stability, and high level of scientific achievement?

Share of global GDP in area chart

Explaining China’s Decline: Karl Marx

Karl Marx
  • Emphasized the role of class struggle and economic structures in societal development.
  • China’s feudal system and lack of a capitalist class hindered industrialization.
  • The absence of a revolutionary proletariat delayed modernization.

Explaining China’s Decline: Max Weber

Max Weber
  • Focused on cultural and religious factors influencing economic development.
  • Protestantism, particularly Calvinism, emphasized hard work, discipline, and frugality.
  • This work ethic encouraged a rational approach to economic activity and a systematic pursuit of profit.
  • Confucian values prioritized stability and harmony over individualism and capitalism.
  • Specifically, imperial examination system prioritized Confucian education over technical or scientific knowledge.
  • Additionally, lack of a rational legal framework and bureaucratic structures impeded China’s modernization.

Explaining China’s Decline: Mark Elvin

Mark Elvin
  • High-equilibrium Trap: Traditional systems and practices are effective enough to prevent change, making capital investment for improving efficiency unprofitable.
  • China’s economic and social structures were stable, leading to resistance against modernization efforts.
  • Indicates that the self-sustaining nature of the agrarian economy limited the motivation for industrial advancement.

Explaining China’s Decline: Kenneth Pomeranz

Kenneth Pomeranz
  • Rather than using “Europe” or “Asia” as units of analysis, focus on macro-regions: lower Yangzi vs England.
  • Both China and Western Europe had similar levels of economic development, including agricultural productivity and urbanization.
  • Coal and colonies: Europe’s access to New World resources, particularly through colonialism, provided a significant advantage. This influx of resources enabled Europe to industrialize rapidly.
  • European institutions, particularly regarding property rights and market structures, were not uniquely advantageous: land in China was, in practice, as freely alienable as in Europe.

Explaining China’s Decline: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson
  • From 1500 to 1850, economic growth was strongest in areas with Atlantic trade and colonialism.
  • But the greatest growth came where monarchs had less power, enabling merchants to succeed.
  • This is why modern economic growth started in Britain instead of other European countries, and demonstrates the importance of societal institutions for a country’s prosperity.
  • Societies with a poor rule of law and institutions that exploit the population do not generate growth or change for the better.

Debate: The Great Divergence

  • Which theory do you find most convincing? Why? Do you have another explanation?
  • China vs. the West: What are the appropriate temporal and geographical units of comparison?
  • Are we even asking the right questions? “Why didn’t they modernize…”

“Failure Of the East”: A Bad Question?

  • European exceptionalism: European culture, technology or institutional superiority inevitably led to Western dominance.
  • Longue-durée perspective: 19th century as blip and return of China to power?